Caught in Transition; The Potential of Offshore Wind to Deliver a Just Transition to Filipino Fisherfolk

Introduction

The climate crisis crossed a dangerous threshold in early 2024. For the first time, the world experienced a 12-month period with average temperatures that exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Passing the 1.5°C threshold reinforces the urgent need to pivot away from fossil fuels towards renewable Energy (RE). RE offers cleaner modes of energy production, but an important question remains: what does an energy transition really look like, and how can it be done in a way that leaves no one behind in the pivot away from fossil fuels?

Thus, the energy transition must be a just transition (JT) - a shift towards a low-carbon economy in a way that is fair, inclusive, worker-centric, and equitable. By anticipating and addressing the social and economic impacts of decarbonisation, a JT can be considered a means of “future-proofing,” strengthening the long-term resilience of communities and economies in the face of the climate crisis. 

A Changing World

While climate change is a key driver of RE development, RE is increasingly marketed as a solution to energy security and sovereignty. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) emphasised energy security in its October 2025 call to accelerate the transition to RE, but the 2026 conflict in western Asia has reinforced its importance in a region which sees 55% of its crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The Philippines has perhaps illustrated this vulnerability most clearly, becoming the first country in the world to declare a national energy emergency after the conflict exposed an overreliance on imported energy. 98% of the country's crude oil comes from the Persian Gulf. 

The compounding effects of climate change and geopolitical realities mean that there should be increasing political will to shift to RE. In the Philippines, there are some efforts to push for such a transition.  The Senate President has called for the passage of the Energy Transition Act; President Marcos has reaffirmed that his administration is intent on pushing for more Filipino RE. It remains to be seen if such initiatives will become law and, if so, how such policies would be implemented. However, the Department of Energy 2023-2050 Energy Plan does aim to increase the share of renewables in the power generation mix to at least 35 percent by 2030, 50 percent by 2040, and beyond 50 percent by 2050. 

Offshore Wind (OSW) is expected to play a major role in achieving these targets, as the cornerstone of the country's energy strategy. The Offshore Wind Roadmap for the Philippines outlines ambitious plans for OSW development, including transmission expansion, marine spatial planning, improving port capacity, and setting up an auction process to attract domestic and foreign investment. These measures are intended to accelerate large-scale OSW deployment and position the sector as a key contributor to the country’s long-term decarbonization and energy security objectives. 

Social and Environmental Challenges Associated with Offshore Wind 

The critical issue arises that decarbonisation is not sustainable or net positive by default. Done without due consideration for ecological and social impacts, RE development can exacerbate preexisting environmental issues facing adjacent communities.

Fisherfolk are one of several communities vulnerable to a number of challenges. At a baseline, they are among the sectors of the Philippine economy that consistently exhibit the highest poverty incidence rate. They are also acutely impacted by climate change, with fisheries that coastal communities rely on globally expected to diminish in abundance and become more challenging to harvest. 

OSW threatens to further pressure the marine ecosystems fisherfolk rely on. Zones identified by the World Bank’s Offshore Wind Roadmap for the Philippines are all near or within protected areas and other significant biodiversity zones. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have increasingly been recognised by Filipino fishing communities as essential to long-term food security. Thus, threats to MPAs and marine ecosystems are unlikely to be welcomed by coastal communities, like those in Palawan, who already believe that climate change will negatively impact marine life.

Coastal communities in the Philippines have consistently protested what they see as a  “corporate, profit-driven” energy transition. In Laguna de Bay, fisherfolk and environmental advocates have urged the Environment Secretary to reject a floating solar power project near traditional fishing grounds. The massive infrastructure may disrupt fishing accessibility and change the lake’s ecosystem, posing high risks to the livelihoods of more than 8000 small fisherfolk and coastal residents. 

Recognising the existing vulnerability and prevailing attitudes of these communities, any rushed transition towards OSW threatens to further upend their livelihoods. These communities are already feeling the pressure of environmental crises. Renewable energy development should not further compound their challenges. 

The impending energy transition in the Philippines represents an opportunity for JT operationalisation. The present push for OSW offers a chance to actualise JT principles and support communities.

What do current frameworks and law say about RE development and Just Transition?

A draft of The Philippine Just Transition Framework (PJTF) was made publicly available in February 2026 for review before the final version is approved. This framework was created to provide strategic guidance and a clear rationale for aligning industrial and infrastructure development, employment dynamics, social and community development, land use, and biodiversity and natural resource management with just transition objectives. After consulting government, civil society, labour unions, academia, youth, Indigenous groups, and the private sector across Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, the Philippines definition of a just transition is formulated thus far as: 

A just transition is a transformative, people-centered shift to a low-carbon, energy-secure and climate-resilient economy that prioritizes equity, inclusivity and balance throughout the process, without compromising environmental integrity, in alignment with other Philippine local and international commitments, policies, and programs.

It prioritizes the needs, well-being, and lived realities of all Filipinos, particularly those most vulnerable to the impacts of social and economic shifts. It involves a commitment to addressing existing and emerging inequalities, creating decent work opportunities, ensuring that no one is left behind, delivering social, economic and environmental co-benefits, as the country transitions to a more sustainable and equitable society.

A just transition requires a whole-of-economy, whole-of-society, and whole-of-government approach and can only be achieved through the meaningful and effective participation of all stakeholders, especially the disadvantaged, vulnerable, and marginalized groups (p. 3-4).

While these commitments are commendable, their value ultimately rests on how they are put into practice.

Bridging the Gap

The critical question given the context above is: As offshore wind is increasingly developed in the Philippines, can it be done in a way which meets just transition principles?

Although the concept of a JT can appear abstract or complex, it is fundamentally centred on a transition which leaves no one behind. Taking the case of fisherfolk, we can narrow the scope while still revealing broad implications. Four key points most relevant to Filipino fisherfolk and OSW were selected from the identified priority areas for action on JT of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) guidelines for a JT (p. 23-24):

1. Undertaking initial impact assessments
   JT must prioritise “the needs, well-being, and lived realities of all Filipinos” and be undertaken “without compromising environmental integrity” (PJTF). The World Bank (WB) is a partner entity responsible for the Philippines Offshore Wind Roadmap and its spatial analysis. In past large-scale renewable projects in the global south, WB has designated land and sea relied on by informal communities for subsistence as key sites for development.  

   For fisherfolk, this is particularly crucial. Their livelihood depends on the health of the marine ecosystem, meaning that improper implementation of OSW threatens to degrade coastal habitat, posing both social and environmental risks. Impact assessments must be undertaken properly to ensure the Philippines does not leave fisherfolk behind in this transition.

2. Fostering and conducting effective stakeholder consultation and engagement
   A JT “can only be achieved through the meaningful and effective participation of all stakeholders, especially disadvantaged, vulnerable, and marginalized groups” (PJTF). The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), representing 70% of the global wind industry, reinforced this in its 2026 report on the Philippines, calling for “early and transparent engagement with those most affected, particularly our fisheries and coastal sectors.” Fisherfolk were identified as key stakeholders requiring early and ongoing consultation. GWEC-led roundtable discussions also highlighted the need for a new benefit-sharing framework and sustained engagement with coastal communities, local government units (LGUs), and fisherfolk. 

   As offshore wind is a new industry in the Philippines and Southeast Asia, it is encouraging that consultations are underway and frameworks are being proposed. However, how these commitments will be implemented remains to be seen.

3. Systematically ensuring workforce transition
   To “creat[e] decent work opportunities” and “ensur[e] that no one is left behind” (PJTF), intentional effort in skills development for fisherfolk is essential. Skills programs could support transitions into sustainable livelihoods such as eco-tourism. For instance, a study on Samal Island, Mindanao found that the majority of 100 surveyed fisherfolk were willing to participate in tourism-related activities, indicating strong potential interest for tourism to supplement fishing. 

   Similarly, fisherfolk could be trained and employed to monitor and enforce new OSW zones, building on community-based approaches used in marine protected areas (MPAs). Adequate funding and training are needed to equip fisherfolk for these emerging green jobs, while also creating opportunities for previously marginalized groups, including women and persons with disabilities (PWDs). 

4. Ensuring social protection, safety nets and social inclusion
   To ensure that the energy transition delivers “social and economic … co-benefits” and “no [Filipino] is left behind”  (PJTF), it is integral for wind development projects to have strong social protections for fisherfolk. Not only should fisherfolk not suffer harm from reduced catch and loss of livelihoods, but they should experience equitable benefits from project development. Wind projects should ensure comprehensive community benefit agreements, such as revenue co-sharing agreements or local access to free/subsidized energy. Evidence from wind farm villages in South Korea shows that both value-sharing and meaningful community engagement are positively associated with local acceptance of wind power. 

   Notably, as revenue-sharing packages are negotiated, compensation mechanisms must extend beyond one-time payments and provide fisherfolk with opportunities to share in the long-term benefits generated by offshore wind development. In doing so, compensation can move beyond offsetting short-term losses to supporting the long-term sustainability and resilience of fisherfolk's livelihoods.

   These specific measures are meant to provide a snapshot of how JT principles could be applied in the case of fisherfolk and OSW and reflect how compensation and community integration must be tailored to the needs of those most vulnerable on their terms. 

Conclusion

It is encouraging to see the Philippines demonstrating a strong commitment to prioritizing renewable energy development to advance both climate action and energy security. However, the success of offshore wind development will ultimately depend on whether it delivers a just transition. This means ensuring that environmental and social harms are minimized and that fisherfolk are not only protected from negative impacts but also share equitably in the benefits of the transition. The Philippine Just Transition Framework presents a promising opportunity by providing a basis for fisherfolk, local communities, and civil society organizations to hold both the government and developers accountable to just transition principles. However, in its current form, the framework primarily serves as a guiding policy document, meaning that the implementation of a just transition remains largely voluntary and dependent on the will and commitment of key stakeholders. Moving forward, the Philippines has the opportunity to set a precedent within Southeast Asia and beyond by demonstrating how OSW development can serve as a catalyst for a truly just transition - one that genuinely benefits, empowers, and supports local communities rather than reproducing existing inequalities and patterns of extractive development. Ultimately, the success of the transition will depend on whether these commitments are translated into tangible outcomes for affected communities.

Note: This blog is a collaborative piece by Ellaina Coley and Olin Bailly, based on their chosen environmental issue. They are part of Parabukas’ 8th Summer Internship Program in 2026, through our partnership with the Queen’s Project on International Development (QPID) program of Queen’s University, Ontario, Canada.